AN ATTEMPT TO EVALUATE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH RADIOLOGICAL TERROR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15392/bjrs.v2i1.13Keywords:
Radionuclides, Radiological Risk, TerrorismAbstract
The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: 210Po; 226Ra and 241Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like 137Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions.Downloads
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